GSU Economist: US Politics, Global Slowdown to Influence Georgia’s Recovery

Jim Burress | WABE

August 22nd, 2012

Expect the US economy to go through a series of ups-and-downs for at least the next year,  Georgia State Univ. economist Dr. Rajeev Dhawan said Wednesday.

Here in Georgia, most sectors will either remain flat or see tepid growth, he said.

“In the last five months, our export growth has really slowed,” Dhawan said during his quarterly economic forecast.

Exports used to be the “shining star” of the state’s economy, outpacing the national average. But Dhawan said Europe isn’t buying as many Georgia-built aircraft, vehicles, or even paper.

That’s part of what will account for lukewarm job growth in Georgia for the rest of 2012 and 2013, with unemployment hovering above 9%,  he said.

And that could come at the expense of Atlanta’s population growth.

“If your unemployment rate is higher than the national one, people typically move out,” Dhawan said.  “If it’s lower than the national one, people are typically brought in.”

But the end of gloom and doom is in sight, Dhawan said of the economic recovery.  If Georgians can ride things out for a bit more than a year, Dhawan predicted we’ll finally see sustained growth in production, employment, and individual income in the first quarter of 2014.

(Dr. Rajeev Dhawan serves on the board of Public Broadcasting Atlanta, the parent organization of WABE-FM.) 

Highlights from the Economic Forecasting Center’s Report for Georgia and Atlanta:
• Georgia’s employment base will grow by 41,300 jobs in calendar year 2012, including 8,800 premium
jobs, for an annual job growth rate of 1.1%. The recovery will be similar in 2013 when the state adds
42,600 jobs (0.8% annual job growth rate) with 9,300 premium jobs among that number. In 2014, new job
numbers will rise to 69,600 (1.6% annual job growth rate) including 13,200 premium jobs.
• Georgia’s unemployment rate for 2012 will be 9.1%. With tepid job growth in 2013, unemployment will
rise to 9.2%. When growth picks up in 2014, unemployment will decline to 8.5%.
• Statewide nominal personal income will rise a moderate 3.4% in 2012, increasing to 3.6% in 2013, with
an anticipated strong increase of 4.8% in 2014.
• Atlanta’s employment base will grow by 29,800 jobs, including 6,500 premium jobs, for a growth rate of
1.5%. Job growth will show similar strength in 2013, when Atlanta adds 32,900 jobs, of which 7,900 are
premium jobs (1.1% growth). In 2014 metro area employment growth will pick up with 54,200 jobs (2.1%
growth) with 12,300 premium jobs.
• Atlanta housing permits will increase by 37.0% in 2012 to 11,557 units, due to an 82.6% rise in
multifamily housing permits. Permit activity will increase by a paltry 0.8% in 2013, but will grow strongly in
2014, posting an overall increase of 26.6%

— courtesy, Dr. Rajeev Dhawan, director of Georgia State University’s Economic Forecasting Center.

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