UGA analysts predict Georgia to weather an economic downturn in 2024

December 12th, 2023

University of Georgia President Jere Morehead speaks during the Georgia Economic Outlook presented by UGA - Terry College of Business at the Georgia Aquarium on Monday, December 11, 2023 in Atlanta, Ga. Avery Shenfeld is Managing Director and Chief Economist of CIBC Capital Markets. (Courtesy of UGA)

The U.S. is heading towards an economic slowdown in 2024, with Georgia’s economy heading for a “soft landing,” according to the University of Georgia’s annual Georgia Economic Outlook report, released Monday.

Forecasters estimate that Georgia’s post-pandemic economic growth will slow but continue to push along.

“Georgia is well positioned to weather an economic slowdown, and our economy will outperform the U.S. economy,” said Terry College of Business Dean Ben Ayers at the 2024 Georgia Economic Outlook series kickoff event held at Georgia Aquarium.

The probability that Georgia will slip into recession, Ayers says, is 33%, compared to around 50% for the U.S.

Experts at UGA expect job growth to weaken in early 2024, when they predict that the national economy may take a slight downturn.

“The main reason we expect a stronger outcome for Georgia is a lot of economic development success,” said Jeff Humphreys, director of economic forecasting at the Terry College of Business.

Terry College of Business Dean Ben Ayers, center, speaks with USG Regent Jose Perez, left, and Economist Avery Shenfeld, right, during the 2023 Georgia Economic Outlook presented by the UGA – Terry College of Business at the Georgia Aquarium on Monday, December 11, 2023 in Atlanta, Ga. (Courtesy of UGA)

Despite slower GDP growth, forecasters expect the labor market to remain strong enough to stave off an actual recession.

“The build-out of many large projects in the economic development pipeline and favorable demographics are the main reasons why Georgia will fare better than the nation,” said Ayers.