In a tight race, Trump’s complicated ties with Kemp could matter

Kemp went on to a decisive reelection victory in 2022, even after Trump backed another Republican during the GOP primary for governor. 

At an Atlanta rally in August, Trump had harsh words for Kemp, whose approval rating has hovered around 60%.

“He’s a disloyal guy and he’s a very average governor,” Trump told the crowd. “Little Brian, little Brian Kemp, bad guy.”

When Trump continued to slam the top Republican official in a crucial swing state, many Republicans scratched their heads, given Kemp’s crossover appeal and top-notch political operation.

“For Trump, Georgia is a must-win,” says Georgia Republican strategist Brian Robinson. “He learned a lesson pretty quick in August that going after Kemp was a bad strategic move.”

Though Kemp told reporters he cast a blank ballot in the GOP primary for president, he long said he would support the Republican nominee no matter what. In a September Fox News interview, Kemp made clear – he was behind Trump. That opened the door for Trump and Kemp to patch things up

In October, the two men shook hands not at a campaign event, but after Trump surveyed damage from Hurricane Helene around Augusta.  

“Your governor is doing a fantastic job,” Trump told reporters.

Kemp’s pitch has focused on the GOP record, not Trump

Despite the reconciliation, it had been unclear how far Kemp would go to actively boost Trump. Kemp has not attended any Trump rallies so far this year, but has deployed his campaign infrastructure to boost Republicans and oppose Democrats, which could in turn, lift Trump.

In the final weeks of the campaign, Kemp has hosted his own Get Out the Vote events. Inside a genteel Atlanta country club where Kemp hosted a breakfast for an incumbent state lawmaker in a competitive district on a recent Friday, the governor barely nodded at the presidential race beyond a dig at the Harris campaign’s roster of celebrity surrogates. 

Kemp did not mention Trump during his remarks. Instead, he framed his pitch around Republicans’ record at the helm of state government, like cutting taxes. 

Pressed by reporters after the breakfast event, Kemp affirmed he is still pulling for Trump, despite their history, which included Trump bashing Kemp’s wife, Georgia first lady Marty Kemp, at that August rally. The first lady had previously told a reporter she would likely write-in her husband’s name when she cast her vote in the November presidential election.

“This is not about me and it’s not about him,” Kemp said. “It’s about the people of this country and what they want. Do they really think they were better off right now than they were four years ago?”

Kemp has built up his own sophisticated political infrastructure, now seen by most operatives as far superior to the Georgia Republican Party. The state party has languished as it has helped foot hefty legal bills for Republicans facing criminal charges related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election result. 

Kemp’s political action committees are spending roughly $3 million on door knocking, phone calls, text messages and mail, with a focus on competitive state legislative races. The federal committee is focused on opposing Vice President Kamala Harris, but is not boosting Trump by name in the literature. 

“I want to win,” Kemp told reporters. “So we’re all fighting to make sure we win from the top of the ticket down all the way down to the bottom.”

Kemp and Trump’s relationship is symbiotic, Robinson says.

“If Donald Trump is president, he could be helpful or create a major hurdle for Brian Kemp and his future political endeavors,” he says.

Kemp is often mentioned as a possible contender for the U.S. Senate in 2026 or the presidency in 2028.

For Trump, Robinson says Kemp may give some suburban independents and Republicans uneasy about Trump permission to cast their ballots for the former president. 

“I don’t want to oversell it,” Robinson says. “It is important. And it’s marginally important. But we have an election that will be determined on the margins.”

Many voters trust Kemp — and could be swayed by him

Standing in the back of the Kemp event wearing a floral dress, Tracey D’Arcy is one of the voters who is not enthusiastic about Trump or Harris. 

“I would love it if we had different nominees for both parties, honestly,” D’Arcy says. “Nikki Haley would have been amazing.”

D’Arcy describes herself as center-right. She says she thinks the restrictive abortion law signed by Kemp banning most abortions after roughly six weeks is too tight and laments the tumult caused by the overturn of Roe v. Wade, which Trump has praised, but she is also worried by Harris’ liberal record in the U.S. Senate. 

As far as Trump’s efforts to pressure Kemp after the 2020 election, when he urged him to call a special legislative session to investigate allegations of election fraud, she says does not know enough about what happened to form a strong opinion. 

But she says she tends to trust her governor’s judgment. 

“I think he’s a very level person,” she says. “I think he is reasonable. It definitely weighs on which way I will decide to vote.”

So D’Arcy has a choice to make in a key state decided in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes.