Emory PoliSci Guru Says Paul Ryan as VP is “Unlikely” to Sway the Election
In what’s expected to be a tight race for President, could VP candidate Paul Ryan be the key to a Romney win?
“Usually vice presidential candidates don’t make that much difference,” says Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz.
The political scientist is well-known for his study of presidential elections. He’s even built a model that’s eerily accurate at predicting the winner.
But he says it’s rare that a VP choice will swing many votes. Even in Paul Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin, Abramowitz says having Ryan on the ticket will have little impact.
“He’s not really that well-known state-wide, and he’s a fairly controversial figure even there.,” he says. “It’s unlikely Ryan’s selection will alter the outcome in Wisconsin, and even less likely that it will alter the outcome nationally.”
Abramowitz’s latest model shows President Obama winning by about one percent.
He says that’s close enough that the Electoral College could go against the popular vote, as it did in 2000.
That year, George Bush was elected President although Al Gore had more votes.
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