McCarthy's plans for impeachment don't appear to be tamping down shutdown threat

“Those are two separate conversations and two separate actions by Congress,” said Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles, a Freedom Caucus member. “There is no leverage with an impeachment process. And if anyone tries to use that to leverage votes for a CR, [a short-term spending bill known as a continuing resolution], there will be hell to pay.”

Ogles and the rest of the Freedom Caucus represent the threat that has loomed over McCarthy, R-Calif., for months: agree to demands from the far right or lose his job as speaker.

On Wednesday morning McCarthy presented a plan to his members behind closed doors. Under that plan, they would continue passing individual spending bills to present a united GOP front to respond to the bipartisan bills coming out of the Senate. He also said that meant the House would need to pass a CR to prevent a shutdown on October 1.

Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., said McCarthy expressed concerns about having the votes to pass any stop-gap bill to avoid a shutdown but was focused on the immediate task of passing some additional bills. Of the 12 annual appropriations bills, the House has passed just one largely along party lines.

House leaders planned to move ahead with the spending process on Wednesday by holding votes on funding for the Department of Defense. But by midday, the plan was starting to crumble, signaling that factions in the conference are still far apart. The Senate is voting this week on a package of three funding bills that are expected to get bipartisan support.

Members of the Freedom Caucus say they will oppose any stop-gap bill that does not include additional border security funding, changes to Pentagon policies and measures to address alleged political bias in the Justice Department.

They are also calling for overall spending to return to fiscal year 2022 levels, as they pushed for when McCarthy was elected speaker. Those levels are lower than what McCarthy and President Biden agreed to during debt ceiling negotiations this spring.

With a razor-thin majority, McCarthy can’t afford to lose fiscal conservatives, unless he courts Democratic votes – a move that would further enrage the group already threatening his job.

Freedom Caucus member Rep. Andrew Clyde said Tuesday passing a CR without conservative concessions would “endanger Speaker McCarthy’s leadership.”

Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz took to the floor Tuesday to warn that McCarthy was “out of compliance” with the deal he cut in January to be elected speaker. Gaetz cited votes on all 12 spending bills as one of the items McCarthy hasn’t delivered on. But it was conservatives who forced the speaker to table one of those bills in July, when their demands made it clear leaders didn’t have the votes to pass the bill.

Rep. Bob Good, R-Va., a member of the Freedom Caucus, told reporters he wants the speaker to outline in writing how the spending puzzle fits together. He said the House can stay in session for the rest of the month and pass bills one by one at the levels conservatives want.

Good said the debate could go past the September 30 deadline into October when federal agencies run out of money.

“There’s not going to be much impact from that if we do that,” he said.

Cole disagreed that there wouldn’t be any impact from a shutdown, saying “it is a big deal and the American people will notice, and the problem is if you stumble into it whatever reason triggered it won’t be what you’re talking about, you’ll be talking about the shutdown.”

McCarthy’s own allies admitted it was unclear how they would avoid a shutdown, but made the case it was important to get incremental wins now — some spending bills passed out of the House.

Arkansas GOP Rep Steve Womack noted that “the margins are thin” with several House Republicans, including Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who is undergoing cancer treatment, out this week. That added to what he called a “difficult spot” to keep all GOP lawmakers together.

Womack said moving some bills through the House “also sends a signal to the Senate that we’re serious about what we’re doing and we have some solutions that they need to listen to.”

He said “nonverbal” communication from conservatives in the meeting indicated they weren’t sold and said “remember, it doesn’t take many.”

Rep. Patrick McHenry, a close ally of McCarthy who was a key negotiator during debt ceiling talks, was more optimistic about the chance that Republicans could get on the same page.

“At the end of the day … the only thing that is going to be enacted into law is what we negotiated as a direct result of a debt ceiling increase,” McHenry told reporters. “We negotiated tough caps that we have to adhere to. And if [some senators] want to spend over and House Republicans want to spend less than the caps, well, then where do we end up? The caps. I think that’s a reasonable outcome of this thing.”

The speaker pitched combining three bills that fund security related programs – Defense, Military Construction and VA and Homeland Security – with emergency money for disaster aid for the recent fires and storms that have wreaked havoc in states across the country.

The House is scheduled to be in session just another 11 days before the end of the fiscal year. There’s little evidence that McCarthy’s strategy of trying to put out fires day by day to try to get his members on the same page will avoid a shutdown.

“Shutting down the government is the political equivalent of putting a gun to your head and saying ‘do what I say or I’ll shoot’ – you hurt yourself, you’re not going to advance your objective,” Cole warned.