“Partisanship” a game-changer in the political modeling game, says Emory’s Abramowitz
The latest Reuters poll shows President Obama with a 5% lead over opponent Mitt Romney.
But for months now, a handful of political scientists have used models — not polls — to predict a winner.
Some say political modeling is voodoo science.
But many others say the proof is in the pudding. 
And Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz has developed among the most respected—and most accurate—presidential prediction models.
An interview with Dr. Alan Abramowitz, political science professor at Emory University
Using a mathematical formula with just a few variables—like incumbency, approval rating, and the Gross Domestic Product– he’s usually able to predict a winner months in advance.
But this year, for the first time, Abramowitz had to make a change.
As he told WABE’s Jim Burress during a recent conversation, partisanship among voters is changing the game.
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