US abortion numbers have risen slightly since Roe was overturned, study finds

Fallout from the Supreme Court’s June 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization has remade the way abortion works across the country. The #WeCount data, which has been collected in a monthly survey since April 2022, shows how those providing and seeking abortion have adapted to changing laws.

The survey found that the number of abortions fell to nearly zero in states that ban abortion in all stages of pregnancy and declined by about half in places that ban it after six weeks of pregnancy, before many women know they are pregnant. Fourteen states are enforcing bans on abortion at all stages of pregnancy, with some exceptions, and four others bar it after about six weeks of pregnancy.

Numbers went up in places where abortion remains legal until further into pregnancy — and especially in states such as Illinois, Kansas and New Mexico, which border states with bans.

The report estimates that if not for the post-Dobbs bans, there would have been about 9,900 more abortions per month — and 208,000 total since — in those states. The numbers were up by more than 2,600 per month in Illinois, about 1,300 in Virginia, 1,200 in Kansas and more than 500 in New Mexico.

Abortion pills and telemedicine play a key role. In March, doctors in states with laws to protect medical providers used telemedicine to prescribe abortion pills to nearly 10,000 patients in states with bans or restrictions on abortion by telehealth — accounting for about 1 in 10 abortions in the U.S.

Laws to protect medical providers who use telemedicine to prescribe abortion pills started taking effect in some Democratic-led states last year.

“It eases the burden on clinics,” said Ushma Upadhyay, a University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine professor who co-leads #WeCount. “So it creates more space for the people who are coming to clinics.”

Abortion opponents say the fight over the abortion drug mifepristone isn’t over after a narrow Supreme Court ruling that preserved access to it for now. But so far there have not been legal challenges to shield laws.

The latest edition of the survey covers the first three months of this year, when it counted an average of just under 99,000 abortions per month, compared with 84,000 in the two months before Dobbs. January was the first time since the survey began that it has counted more than 100,000 abortions across the country in a single month.

The tracking effort collects monthly data from providers across the country, creating a snapshot of abortion trends. In some states, a portion of the data is estimated. The effort makes data public with less than a six-month lag, giving a picture of trends far faster than annual reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, where the most recent report covers abortion in 2021.

Before the shield laws began kicking in and #WeCount started tallying them, people were still getting some pills in places with bans.

One of the states where abortions increased was Florida. That changed in April, when a ban after six weeks’ gestation took effect. The data doesn’t yet reflect that change.

The policy could change again through a November ballot measure that would make abortion legal until viability, generally considered to be around 23 or 24 weeks into pregnancy. It needs at least 60% approval to be added to the state constitution.

One vote against it will come from Mia Adkins, a 20-year-old senior at Florida International University.

“Instead of pushing for more abortion legal later in pregnancy, we should be pushing for laws that protect these pregnant parents and students and provide them with the support that they need,” said Akins, a senior at Florida International University.

Florida is one of six states where abortion-related measures are already on the ballot. Determinations from elections officials about adding similar questions are pending in four more states. In one, Nebraska, there are dueling amendments: One to allow access until viability and one to keep the current ban on most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy.

Abortion-rights supporters have prevailed in all seven abortion ballot questions in the U.S. since 2022. That tracks with public opinion polling that has shown growing support for abortion rights, including a recent Associated Press-NORC poll that found 6 in 10 Americans think their state should allow someone to obtain a legal abortion if they don’t want to be pregnant for any reason.

An amendment to protect access could be on the ballot in Arizona, a political battleground state where court cases have swung abortion policy — and access — since the Dobbs ruling.

The state Supreme Court ruled in April that Arizona should enforce an 1864 ban on abortions at all stages of pregnancy, only for lawmakers to repeal that law. The state’s ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy remains. The ballot measure would expand it to 24 weeks.

Natalie Harper, a 23-year-old independent who usually doesn’t vote, said the potential of bringing back the Civil War-era ban “absolutely” impacts her decision to vote for the ballot measure this November. “Seeing that as a possibility really made me realize that everyone’s pro-choice voices need to be heard in hopes it never goes in that direction again,” she said.

In Missouri, which has outlawed almost all abortions and where nearly none were reported in the new data, election officials could soon certify whether a proposed constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion rights received enough petition signatures to qualify for the ballot in the reliably Republican state.

University of Missouri political scientist Peverill Squire said that if the measure is on the ballot, it could draw out enough Democratic voters to help swing a few competitive legislative races.

“They can seize on the personal freedom arguments the Republicans have generally owned over the recent elections,” he said.